Throughout history, we’ve worried that we’re nearing the end of progress and have found that to be an obviously suitable reason to be pessimistic about the future. For evidence of this long-standing belief, here are two quotes from the last 200 years:
In 1830, Thomas Babington Macauley[1] asked,
“On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”
Then, in 1930, John Maynard Keynes[2] echoed this sentiment,
“We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism. It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress which characterized the nineteenth century is over; that the rapid improvement in the standard of life is now going to slow down.”
You see, this pessimism about the future has been a staple of humanity for as long as anyone can remember.
Today, we stand on the verge of remarkable progress driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and, somehow, have turned that into yet another reason for pessimism. In a very short period of time, we’ve replaced worrying about a lack of progress with worrying that it’s now happening much too fast. Oh, the irony.
Perhaps the one thing that these two perspectives have in common is that we seem to be able to find a reason to worry about the future no matter what’s going on. It’s just as economist Deirdre McCloskey[3] once observed,
“For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell.”
To say that AI has caused a rollercoaster of emotions of late would be an understatement.
Just a few months ago, the consensus was that AI would unlock an entirely new level of worker productivity[4]. People were so excited about its potential that investors feared that an AI stock market bubble[5] was becoming inevitable.
Then, last month, upon the release of a fantastical piece of science fiction[6], everyone suddenly became worried that AI would take everyone’s job away, not to mention the second- and third-order effects of such an event.
So, which is it? Is AI an unlock of worker productivity, or the end of workers entirely?
As usual, the only safe answer is nobody knows. We can “hypothetical” ourselves to death, but if we base our perspective on all of history, I tend to lean toward the former. Why?
Because this isn’t the first time we’ve experienced world-changing technological shifts that were supposedly going to put countless people permanently out of work. Farm automation, railroads, the industrial revolution, automobiles, computers, the internet, and self-driving cars were just a few of the previous speculations for mass unemployment.
Thanks to the technological shifts Keynes was observing in that 1930 piece (not to mention the others noted above), he expected that we would eventually work just 15 hours per week. He was certainly right about the continued path of progress and advancements in technology, but very wrong about our working hours since we are collectively working more hours today than ever before[7]. So much for being underemployed or out of work!
In lieu of providing a bunch of personal commentary on this topic, we thought it might be more helpful to share a few resources that offer a very reasoned analysis of the current state of AI as an antidote to the fear that recent headlines have focused on. If you’re interested, here are a few we believe are worth reading/watching:
- For a highly data-driven view of how AI may evolve: 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis from Citadel
- Computer Science Professor Cal Newport shared: Will AI Destroy the Economy? (According to Economists: No.) [Video]
- From journalist Derek Thompson[8]: Nobody Knows Anything
- And finally, All the Jobs That No Longer Exist by Ben Carlson
The point here isn’t to dismiss the claims that AI will be disruptive. It probably will be, at least to some extent. But that doesn’t mean it will be the end of the world.
We can promise you that we’re paying close attention to the ongoing developments in this area and will be sure to share more thoughts as we have them. Until next time, stay the course!
- [1] Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker
- [2] Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren by John Maynard Keynes
- [3] Quote Investigator
- [4] Goldman Sachs
- [5] Yale
- [6] The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis from Citrini
- [7] Pew Research[8] This article is paywalled at a certain point, but offers valuable perspective even before the paywall.
*Material created by Money Visuals, LLC, an independent third party not affiliated with Raymond James.
Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.
